Football Betting Blog

These are the teams that I have identified as value lays

22 Jan
Wolves v Liverpool (2.4)
Blackpool v Sunderland (2.86)
Fulham v Stoke (3.75)
Newcastle v Spurs (3.5)
Villa v Man City (2.55)

23 Jan
Blackburn v West Brom (3.55)

24 Jan
Bolton v Chelsea (1.68)

Still in the test stages so I am interested to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.

Value Lays 17/01/2011

Following my post at the weekend flagging up 7 teams that were rated as a value lay (not to win), 1 won and the other 6 failed to win.

Early days yet but out of 8 picks since I compiled my list, 1 teams won and 7 have failed to win giving a profit of 6.39 points to a 1 point lay, not taking into account commission.

I will post this weeks lays later in the week when the markets are settled.

Die Roten 17/01/2011

A 0-0 draw for Napoli put paid to this week's pick but Stoke's win rubbed salt into the wounds for me. After being beaten off Fulham in one of my xmas picks they have since recorded 2 vicotries against Everton and Bolton, both at decent odds of 13/8 and 6/5, a little annoying to say the least.

This week I am posting early for a match in the Bundesliga, which probably means that the price will drift! If it does I can't see it drifting too much further and am more than happy with the current price on offer.

I picked up on the price of this selection last week but wanted to see how the two teams returned from the winter break before committing to it.

Match - Hannover v Schalke
Date - 22 January 2011
KO - 2.30pm
Selection - Hannover
Price - 11/5 Pinnacle, 21/10 VC

I had to look twice to make sure I wasn't getting my teams mixed up in this one - Hannover (2nd in the league) v Schalke (11th in the league). Before I even do a bit of a breakdown of the figures I would like anyone to try to justify the odds available on a team at home 12 points better in the league than their opposition over an 18 match period.

Hannover home record P9 W6 D1 L2 is second only to Munich this season and tied with runaway leader Dortmund (goal difference aside). A 1-0 home defeat to Dortmund is fair, a draw with 4th placed Leverkusen is also fair with the only real blemish being a home loss to St Pauli back in October. Currently on a 3 game home winning streak.

Schalke away record reads P8 W2 D2 L4 scoring only 7 goals.

Although Schalke pulled away from relegation with 16 points from 21 (mostly at home) including 5 clean sheets prior to the xmas break, they returned with a 1-0 home loss to Hamburg.

Hannover were themselves in good form winning 5 from 6 before the winter break following their defeat to Dortmund and then returned from the break with a 3-0 win away to Frankfurt.

So home form is solid and recent form is solid so why Hannover are more than Evs - 5/4 is beyond me when Munich or Dortmund would be offered up around that mark or shorter.

Win, lose or draw I don't think I will see a price like this on a team with these figures all season.

Blogs 15/01/2011

I have added some links down the right hand side to other websites and blogs that I have been reading.

Packed Pockets is a great horse racing site with tips provided by the administrator PJ. Lots of useful information and some great winners to be had in well over a year of using the site. You can follow PJ on twitter and receive notification of his bets via text if you enable alerts. You need to register on the site to view the tips but registration is free.
There is also a great thread in the Forum called "JR's AW" - Jack Russell posts bets daily for the All Weather and sends texts out if you Private Message him. JRs thread has been running for around 6 weeks or longer and is showing profit to well over 100 points already.
I post my own picks on the site too with reasonable success but I have not posted too much in the last couple of months due to the weather scuppering my jump racing.
Andy, Ciaran and Alinbmth also contribute their fair share of winners.
A great site and a great bunch of lads who are always willing to answer any queries and help each other out.

Green All Over is the blog I have been reading the longest for about 3 months now. Some excellent betting advice from the host Cassini and he posts his bets regularly which are based on his own ratings system.

I mentioned Mark Iverson the other day and he also uses his own ratings system, not always agreeing with Cassini's or with my own selection methods but that is the beauty of betting.

The Catious Football Trader and Bet Clever websites are new to me and I only started reading them this week but have tracked back over them for the last month or two. Both feedback results from other betting systems that they currently employ or are trialling which could be invaluable to anyone wanting to verify results from a betting/trading package before they purchase them.

I hope you find them useful and they open up a few more avenues for you. I will add others as I come across them.

A day in front of the racing for me today hoping that Kauto Star wins the King George for a 5th successive year, the race put back from 26th December due to the weather. I backed Kauto at 6/5 antepost and currently trading at 8/11.

Today will also give me an opportunity to look into my away lays that I am trying to put together, not sure of their current trading price but I logged the following as value lays during the week. Liverpool were one during the week at 1.95 away to Blackpool (also flagged by Mark Iverson).
Aresnal 1.61
Villa 3.35
Bolton 3.9
Everton 4.1
Fulham 3.1
Man United 2.52
Newcastle 2.75

See how they go.

Societa Sportiva Calcio Napoli 13/01/2011

Another odds on pick this week, it is rare that I pick odd on shots but this is now 2 weeks in a row, but only because I feel there is still value to be had.

However, with most prices on my picks drifting after posting early in previous weeks I decided to wait an extra couple of days this week and the price has gone in from 4/5, typical.

Match - Napoli v Fiorentina
Date - 15 January 2011
KO - 5pm
Selection - Napoli
Price - 3/4 - Unibet and Skybet

I don't really have much more to add to Fiorentina's away record from previous posts, so I won't. They picked up a point agaisnt us after trailing for most of the game in Bologna but I am still keen to oppose them when I feel the value odds are available.

This week they are away to Napoli who are currently on a 5 match winning run at the Stadio San Paolo, a run including 4 clean sheets. A good turn around following a poor start to the season but only AC and Chievo have taken 3 points away this season.

Napoli have also managed to keep 7 clean sheets in their last 11 games, home and away, winning 8 and losing 3, all away to Lazio, Inter and Udinese.

I would rather have Napoli on side than against us in this instance and I think 3/4 is a decent enough price to tempt me.

A quick note on the blog roll to the right- I have found some useful blogs that I have been reading over the last week or two and I will add these over the next couple of days.

For anyone that subscribed to Mark Iverson's ratings from the link to the right you will note that he successfully tipped a lay of Liverpool at 1.98. I have previosly posted re opposing teams that are close to evens and odds on away from home and this was another example of it here. Liverpool 1 away win all season trading at odds-on shows no value whatsoever.

If anyone is yet to read Mark's site I would encourage you to do so and sign up for his ratings email, he is always willing to answer any queries you may have regarding them.

Round up 10/01/2011

A 4-0 win for Espanyol was a great result for our only main selection of the weekend, 3 early goals helping to settle the nerves.

In the shortlist pick Sociedad twice threw away a 1 goal lead with 2 second half goals from Sevilla condemning Sociedad to another home defeat and more than likely struck off my ones to watch.

Unfortunately B Factors selection he posted in the comments failed to come off, Gijon scoring a 90th minute equaliser. If any readers have any picks that they think are worth a mention please feel free to follow B Factor and Cavendish's lead who have posted selections on here in the past.

I was looking back over some prices over the weekend and their were a couple I missed, some winners, some losers but it has opened up a few more angles.

Possibly a pick this weekend but I will wait for some other bookies to show, it involves opposing a team I have been keen to oppose a couple of times this season but we will see what the bookies throw up.

Athletico Madrid, one of our previous picks are in the process of getting hammered 4-0 at half time away to Hercules who were prices up at over 2/1, shame I wasn't opposing tonight!

Espanyol 07/01/2011

3 Comments

No prizes for guessing this week's pick!

Match - Espanyol v Zaragoza
Date - 9 January 2011
KO - 4pm
Selection - Espanyol
Price - 10/11 - William Hill, 9/10 Pinnacle

I don't think this one needs much of a write up.

Espanyol - 7 wins from 8, 1 loss to Barcelona. In those 7 wins 12 goals have been scored and 2 conceeded.

Zaragoza - 0 wins away this season, 5 draws, 3 defeats scoring only 4 goals.

Espanyol don't score huge amounts of goals like Barcelona and Real Madrid do at home but have a similar record to both of those teams this season. I think the price is great looking at the form lines. The price might be based on Espanyol losing their last 3 games but 2 were away and the home defeat was to Barca.

More than value in my eyes.

Shortlist Selection
For a shortlist bet I am going for Real Sociedad at home to Sevilla. 21/10 available with Pinnacle for the home win and a couple 2/1s are available.

Sociedad have lost 3 at home this season, all against decent teams including Valencia and Real Madrid. 5 wins were all done with clean sheets.

Sevilla have lost 5, 3 v the top 3 in the league and also to Gijon and Hercules who only have 7 wins between them home and away all season. Sevilla always struggle away to top half table teams away.

I don't think Sociedad's pressing tactics will suit Sevilla who have no bite or creativity in the middle of the field.

It is only due to recent form of Sociedad and home defeats that I have down graded this to a shortlist selection but the price is too big to ignore.

3 Comments

Serie-A 03/01/2011

Match - Bologna v Fiorentina
Date - 6 January 2011
KO - 2pm
Selection - Bologna
Price - 2/1 - Pinnacle

Bologna - 4 wins from 8, 4 clean sheets with draws 0-0 draws against Juventus and Inter. Only home defeat coming against top of the table AC Milan is no real shame. aside from the 3 goals leakd to AC only 3 goals have been scored against them.

Fiorentina - 0 wins from 8 away this season, only 6 goals scored and 11 conceeded. 3 draws so far this season are included in only 12 points picked up in the whole of 2010, with 3 coming against relegated Sienna from last season.

For Fiorentina to be the favourite to win this game is beyond me?

I don't think it will be a high scoring game so I don't blame anyone wanting to take the 21/20 with Pinnacle in the draw-no-bet mar(0 Asian Handicap) or the Evs with Victor Chandler.

I'm on at 2/1 as Bologna have previously done us a favour at decent odds (15/8 v Chievo).

Happy New Year 03/01/2011

Returned from my New Year Break and it was nice to see a winning start to the New Year.

The only downside being that I had stoke to beat Everton ear marked for a second bet on New Years Day but because of their defeat to Fulham I downgraded their chances.

I think the 2 defeats to round the year off can be put down to the busy xmas schedule throwing up strange results and most other weeks these picks would have yielded profit.

The winter break in Europe is over with La Liga playing yesterday and today but I couldn't seee anything strong enough in those games.

There should be one or two in Spain and Italy in the next round of matches so I will get number crunching